Almonds Crops: Predictions for 2021

For the third year in a row, 2020 brought a record year of almond crops out of California. Fiscal year 2020/2021 is now the largest crop on record at roughly 18% higher than 2019. If you are in the business of understanding the crop size of almonds, 2021 could be a very good year indeed.

2020 and into 2021

In the US alone, 332 million pounds of almonds were shipped between August and December 2020. And exports from the US to points around the globe increased nearly 80%.

Predictions are that 2021 will break more records.

But then there’s COVID-19.

In 2020, shipments across the globe were hindered due to pandemic restrictions. Thankfully, the Almond Board of California strongly supports the state’s industry with marketing, education, and negotiations with foreign trade officials. They stay involved in all aspects of the almond industry with the goal of helping farmers and distributors continue to get their crops where they need to go.

Crop Size of Almonds in 2021

Each summer, the US Department of Agriculture predicts the following season’s crop size of almonds. This is based on samples of orchards gathered from across the state and measuring and weighing kernels. From that, an estimate is created.

Most years, the USDA has been pretty close to the mark. After years of near-perfect accuracy, in 2019 they were a bit off. Thankfully, the crop size was still strong. The season is summer to summer, so it doesn’t follow the calendar year. As of this writing, we are in the middle of the 2020/2021 crop, and it’s going gangbusters. However, prices are a little lower than predicted.

As of the end of 2020, almond prices were averaging $1.50–2.00 per pound, approximately 30% below the five-year average of $2.90 per pound.

The Popularity of Almonds

Almonds represent an excellent alternative to peanuts for those people with allergies. Plus, their nutritional value makes them a fit with most of today’s dietary lifestyles, including vegan/plant-based, paleo, and keto. The Almond Board of California is always looking for ways to market these power-packed gems. In fact, almonds have been the number one nut in new product introductions for the past decade.

These kinds of efforts will be important as tariffs shift. Import tariffs to China began increasing in 2018, moving from 10% to today’s 55%. It’s to be expected that China has dropped in their desire to import California’s almonds. This is just another reason the almond marketing game expands beyond the US borders.

Stay in the Know with Cyclone Shipping

At Cyclone Shipping, the majority of our clients grow and distribute almonds and fruits. Therefore, we stay attuned to what’s happening not only in the shipping industry but in the almond industry as well. If you have questions about how we can help meet your shipping and distribution needs in 2021 and beyond, please reach out to us. We’re always here to answer any of your questions.